Malkov P.Yu.1,2, Karanin A.V.1 2020. [Bioclimatic modelling of the spatial distribution of Parnassius apollo (Linnaeus, 1758) (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae) in the Altai, Russia] // Euroasian Entomological Journal. Vol.19. No.5: 237–244 [in Russian, with English summary].
1 Gorno-Altaisk State University, Lenkina Str. 1, Gorno-Altaisk 649000 Russia. E-mail: malkovi@bk.ru, vedmedk@bk.ru
2 Katunskiy State Nature Biosphere Reserve, Zapovednaya Str. 1, Altai Republic, Ust-Koksa 649490 Russia.
doi: 10.15298/euroasentj.19.5.01
ABSTRACT. Probability models of the past, current and future range of Apollo, Parnassius apollo (Lepidoptera, Papilionidae), in the Altai Mts are constructed by means of the maximum entropy method. Evaluation of the predictive capacity of 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic factors has shown that the spatial distribution of the species mostly correlate with three of these factors: precipitation level in the coldest and the warmest quarters of the year, and the average temperature of the warmest quarter of the year. The optimal, suboptimal and worst climatic environments for Apollo in Altai were identified. Changes in the range of the species in the past were shown to be multidirectional, with expansions and withdrawals taking place simultaneously in different regions. The prognosis for its spatial distribution in the future suggests an unstable range, its outline in 2070 depending upon which scenario of the climate change takes place.
KEY WORDS: Parnassius apollo, Apollo butterfly, area, Altai, modeling, MaxEnt.