Babkina I.B., Li M., Bagirov R.T-o., Sibataev A.K., Simakova A.V. 2026. Prediction and assessment of suitable habitats for paper wasps (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) based on the MaxEnt model for different climate scenarios // Euroasian Entomological Journal. Vol.25. No.3: 121–127 [in English].
National Research Tomsk State University, Prospekt Lenina 36, Tomsk 634050 Russia. E-mail: bibsphera@gmail.com, leemark98@mail.ru, sibataev@kazatu.edu.kz, omikronlab@yandex.ru
doi 10.15298/euroasentj.25.03.01
ABSTRACT. Climate change has a significant impact on the geographical distribution of species, making it critical to predict these changes for biodiversity conservation. This study modelled the current and future potential distribution of 10 species of wasps in the family Vespidae representing different biogeographical types, including Transpalearctic, East Asian, Nearctic and Mediterranean. Species occurrence data were obtained from the GBIF database as well as from original collections. 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim (resolution of 2.5 angular minutes) were used for current conditions and four scenarios of future climate change from the CMIP6 project (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 for 2060 and 2100 using the ACCESS-CM2 global climate model). Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was performed using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm in the R environment. The results obtained allowed us to identify the current climatic niches of species and to predict changes in their potential habitats depending on the climate change scenario. We have shown that some species can significantly change their current habitats, while for some species, their habitats will remain unchanged. These findings will contribute to understanding the vulnerability of species to climate change and the development of conservation strategies.
KEY WORDS: MaxEnt, wasps, ecological niche modeling, climate change, potential distribution, habitat suitability.